Escalating Verbal Conflict Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Raises Fears of Conflict

Increasing apprehensions have emerged over the chance of military engagement involving East African countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has intensified in the last month.

Ethiopia-Eritrea border
The Ethiopian government and The Eritrean government cooperated in the armed struggle in northern Ethiopia but they have since fallen out.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a fierce war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a military clash broke out in which numerous people were killed.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and suggested the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

Amid continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Region

There have been few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before turning into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a announcement that the conflict was over – a move that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in the country's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet relations have later worsened again.

Roger Gomez
Roger Gomez

Elara Vance is a business strategist with over 15 years of experience in corporate consulting and digital transformation.