Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government data. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers might not indicate improved countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had during these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the lowest number of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main components of the President's security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it may hide periods when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.